Real-time projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018

J. Daniel Kelly, Lee Worden, Rae Wannier, Nicole A. Hoff, Patrick Mukadi, Cyrus Sinai, Sarah Ackley, Xianyun Chen, Daozhou Gao, Bernice Selo, Mathais Mossoko, Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Eugene T. Richardson, George W. Rutherford, Thomas M. Lietman, Jean Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Anne W. Rimoin, Travis C. Porco

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Received: 31st May 18

As of May 27, 2018, 54 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate outbreak size and duration using a stochastic branching process model with and without vaccine use and using a regression model. With the stochastic transmission model, we projected a median outbreak size of 78 EVD cases (95% credible interval: 52, 125.4), 86 cases (95% credible interval: 53, 174.3), and 91 cases (95% credible interval: 52, 843.5), using 62%, 44%, and 0% estimates of vaccine coverage. With the regression model, we estimated a median size of 85.0 cases (95% prediction interval: 53.5, 216.6). This outbreak has the potential to be the largest outbreak in DRC since 2007. Vaccines are projected to limit outbreak size and duration but are only part of prevention, control, and care strategies.

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